Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: Wide Open Race For #1 Spot This Weekend

Five films compete for box office crown.

by | October 11, 2007 | Comments

Five new films push their way into nationwide release on Friday hoping to challenge two-time champ The Rock making for what should be a free-for-all at the North American box office with many different studios having a realistic shot at claiming the number one spot. Among the top contenders are Sony’s crime thriller We Own the Night, the Lionsgate comedy Why Did I Get Married?, and the George Clooney vehicle Michael Clayton which expands nationally after its scorching debut in limited release. Adding to the mix are the costume drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age and the baseball tale The Final Season. The box office race should be a tight one with as many as four films likely to reach the low double digit millions.

Oscar nominated actors Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix face off as brothers on different sides of the law in the new action thriller We Own the Night. The R-rated pic co-stars Robert Duvall and Eva Mendes and will target an adult audience with a slightly male skew. The former Marky Mark proved his box office pull last spring as the only major star in Shooter which bowed to $14.5M and a $5,176 average by targeting the same audience. Things will be more difficult this time because of the intense competition for mature audiences especially from Michael Clayton. But Night‘s biggest advantage over Michael is that it has two commercial stars instead of just one. The combo should lead to a slim edge at the cash registers.

Despite its awkward title, Night has been pushing itself as an action-packed thriller with faces people love to watch. Reviews have been mixed and with such a crowded field, it will be hard to stand out as a must-see option. Starpower should be the main factor here and showdowns between two solid actors are usually popular with ticket buyers. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, We Own the Night could debut to about $12M.

Phoenix and Wahlberg in We Own the Night

Taking on those boys with some machismo of his own, George Clooney heads into wide release with his legal drama Michael Clayton which Warner Bros. has drummed up plenty of awards buzz for. The R-rated pic bowed to a sizzling $47,994 average last weekend from its platform bow in the Clooney-friendly towns of New York, Los Angeles, and Toronto. This weekend, the thriller will face the real test when it enters every major market across the 50 states. Thanks to his political outspokenness, the Academy Award winning actor has become a polarizing figure. He could easily win an election to become mayor of Hollywood, but in other parts of the country people would gladly pay theaters to not play his movies.

Clayton will test his drawing power since the film has no other box office anchors in it. Co-stars Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton, and Sydney Pollack are well-respected, but they don’t sell tickets. There is plenty of direct competition which is why the film got a head start a week early. Buzz from its red hot platform bow has spread helping to build interest. The crowd will consist of the same people that opened Syriana to $11.7M, The Black Dahlia to $10M, and Zodiac to $13.4M. Night will take away some males and Elizabeth will steal some females so a huge gross will be hard to find. But over the long-term the film could have legs. Expanding into 2,511 locations, Michael Clayton stands as the widest of the new offerings and may capture around $11M over the Friday-to-Sunday period.

Clooney as Clayton

Tyler Perry‘s latest relationship comedy Why Did I Get Married? finds trouble brewing when four married couples come together for an annual winter getaway. The writer/director’s films have always tapped into his loyal fan base with African American women at the core. His 2005 smash Diary of a Mad Black Woman surprised the industry with its first-place debut with $21.9M and a $14,771 average and was followed a year later by Madea’s Family Reunion which grew bigger with a $30M launch. Perry’s last pic Daddy’s Little Girls, also a February release, saw more modest numbers with a $11.2M opening as the filmmaker did not star in the pic.

Married does not have the promotional value of Black History Month or the help of Presidents Day which Girls had early this year. However, Perry’s new film will not face any direct competitors for its target audience. Girls had to face the second weekend of Eddie Murphy‘s hit comedy Norbit which offered some audience overlap. Plus Married boasts more starpower with Perry back on screen and an added boost will come from Janet Jackson who is always a strong draw at the box office with the target audience every time she makes a rare appearance in a movie. The PG-13 film from Lionsgate is unlike anything else in the marketplace right now and with few buzzworthy films aimed at black moviegoers in recent months, it should successfully connect. Debuting in 2,011 theaters, Why Did I Get Married? might open with roughly $12M this weekend.

Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?
Another female-driven film, but taking place centuries ago and across the pond, is the historical drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age which finds Cate Blanchett reprising the role of the British Queen which made her a star nine years ago. The PG-13 pic also finds Geoffrey Rush returning and adds Clive Owen to the mix telling the story of the later years of the monarch’s 16th century reign when threats from Spain and a possible love affair at home led to new challenges. Though at the core a costume drama like its predecessor, Universal’s marketing has played up the action and adventure elements in hopes of attracting men looking for warfare and battle scenes. That may backfire when word gets out that there is actually very little action on screen.

The first Elizabeth opened in limited release in November 1998 and rolled through awards season that winter eventually reaching an impressive $30M while never playing in more than 600 theaters. It also bagged seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Now the studio is hoping that a built-in audience will want to take another trip to the past. Though the first was an acclaimed picture, no real demand ever surfaced for a sequel. So it will be tough for Golden Age at the box office especially with all the competition. Female-led dramas often struggle in the marketplace since it is often too hard for adult women to drag men with them to the multiplex for these stories. New films from Clooney and Wahlberg offer more cross-gender appeal. Ordering her troops into 2,000 theaters on Friday, Elizabeth: The Golden Age might take home about $8M over the three-day period.

Cate Blanchett and Geoffrey Rush in Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Likely to strike out at the box office this weekend is the high school baseball pic The Final Season which stars Sean Astin, Larry Miller, and Powers Boothe. The PG-rated film offers no starpower and has generated very little excitement for itself in the marketplace. Most sports fans interested in the national pastime will tune into the playoffs on their television sets this weekend. A quick trip to DVD is assured for this one which has no guarantee to clinch a spot in the top ten. Opening in about 1,000 theaters, a weekend take of just $2M could be in the works.

The Final Season

Among holdovers, The Game Plan surprised the industry two weeks in a row by taking the number one spot. Given its strong legs and continued lack of competition for the family audience and younger teens, a third round on top is not totally out of the question. Should all the newbies eat into each other and all fail to reach the $12M mark, the Disney kidpic by default may stay put. A 25% decline would give The Game Plan a third weekend tally of $12.5M pushing the 17-day total to a solid $58M.

Paramount and DreamWorks were caught by surprise by the lack of strength for the opening of the Ben Stiller comedy The Heartbreak Kid. With nothing to keep it afloat, a 45% decline might be in order especially since adults will be distracted by a wide assortment of other options. That would give the Farrelly brothers a sophomore session of about $7.5M and a cume of only $25.5M after ten days.

LAST YEAR: Sony used the Friday the 13th before Halloween to launch the sequel to one of the most successful horror films in history and captured the number one spot. The Grudge 2 bowed on top with $20.8M accounting for more than half of its $39.1M final. Eventual Oscar champ The Departed slipped to second with $19M easing only 29% for Warner Bros. The Robin Williams political comedy Man of the Year debuted in third with $12.3M before finishing with a disappointing $37.3M for Universal. Rounding out the top five were the Sony toon Open Season with $11.1M and New Line’s fright franchise flick Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning with $7.5M for a steep 60% plunge. Opening with weak results in sixth was the action pic The Marine with $7.1M on its way to $18.8M for Fox. The religious-themed drama One Night with the King bowed to $4.1M with a good $4,518 average and finished with $13.4M for 8X.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

chucky Starz psycho X-Men CBS HBO Go die hard Election Quiz Comedy New York Comic Con canceled TV shows TV Land Universal Set visit documentaries Food Network biography LGBTQ adventure best Britbox independent IFC Films Travel Channel Toys comedies Creative Arts Emmys Endgame boxoffice asian-american E3 Lionsgate supernatural Turner Classic Movies halloween Marvel Television Lifetime animated 4/20 zombie Mindy Kaling Photos latino Teen Country Pet Sematary war video on demand comic DC streaming service concert Musicals BAFTA USA comics slashers blockbuster hispanic 20th Century Fox golden globes Song of Ice and Fire National Geographic ESPN Disney spinoff zombies book theme song Horror Sundance PlayStation police drama Summer ITV franchise Pirates Nominations Fall TV NBC nature Holidays AMC TCA Hallmark joker Kids & Family Awards screen actors guild dramedy Discovery Channel BBC Logo 2019 Valentine's Day Television Academy Marvel spanish language Drama indiana jones cops Amazon Prime Video award winner christmas movies universal monsters series CW Seed news Super Bowl Sci-Fi stoner zero dark thirty a nightmare on elm street Disney+ Disney Plus dceu FXX Peacock Apple FX documentary Heroines Character Guide emmy awards Lucasfilm Emmy Nominations Comedy Central miniseries Cartoon Network Amazon Action Epix Video Games natural history PBS Pride Month CMT DC Comics CNN south america First Reviews OWN TCA 2017 BBC America Shudder SundanceTV breaking bad 2017 richard e. Grant game of thrones spy thriller Mary Poppins Returns Film Martial Arts DirecTV cancelled TV shows Cosplay foreign Freeform The CW ratings Family San Diego Comic-Con Musical Dark Horse Comics cartoon USA Network twilight cooking GoT Spring TV Premiere Dates TruTV Sundance Now Chilling Adventures of Sabrina social media Women's History Month Thanksgiving casting all-time 2016 Pop TV dogs reboot Spectrum Originals Captain marvel El Rey Apple TV Plus Paramount Network Podcast Trivia rotten movies we love period drama cars indie Pixar Showtime Fox News true crime tv talk binge A24 spider-man 2015 Sneak Peek thriller GIFs sequel Turner crime Fantasy VICE The Purge Pop Funimation 2020 SXSW ABC DGA Awards Tour FOX mockumentary sports vampires SDCC Tarantino YouTube Premium cats E! psychological thriller political drama comiccon Opinion Reality Nickelodeon robots Hallmark Christmas movies TNT historical drama technology Oscars child's play LGBT Shondaland satire Ellie Kemper Lifetime Christmas movies Trophy Talk spain Ghostbusters Film Festival Watching Series Tubi cancelled TV series Superheroe adaptation RT History directors Classic Film Rock justice league docudrama harry potter Trailer The Arrangement discovery History 2018 Syfy cults 71st Emmy Awards travel CBS All Access transformers TCA Winter 2020 batman Acorn TV VOD Emmys Bravo TLC blaxploitation Winners Music IFC Netflix Christmas movies Rocketman Mudbound See It Skip It Mystery Disney Plus Esquire scary movies Tomatazos space canceled Crackle Television Critics Association television 24 frames Elton John American Society of Cinematographers YA Amazon Studios medical drama Arrowverse what to watch Writers Guild of America Walt Disney Pictures video composers TBS science fiction TCM screenings Polls and Games children's TV 21st Century Fox ghosts streaming revenge name the review crossover sitcom renewed TV shows BET Awards MTV MCU Marvel Studios RT21 teaser nbcuniversal dc strong female leads HBO First Look Marathons ABC Family parents Mary poppins anime WarnerMedia Apple TV+ Vudu festivals Star Trek Columbia Pictures President Rocky Netflix DC Universe romance The Walking Dead A&E Baby Yoda serial killer Hulu The Witch APB VH1 talk show Certified Fresh Adult Swim PaleyFest Paramount Binge Guide werewolf Masterpiece Superheroes Holiday Sony Pictures TV renewals films disaster Year in Review Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt quibi Stephen King mutant Nat Geo Best and Worst Black History Month Amazon Prime Comics on TV YouTube BBC One TIFF Spike mission: impossible diversity Red Carpet Chernobyl sag awards toy story cancelled television free movies movie 007 Western Winter TV witnail finale Extras BET Warner Bros. Comic Book Grammys facebook Disney streaming service politics Tumblr Sundance TV Crunchyroll Academy Awards TCA Awards YouTube Red OneApp TV green book reviews Infographic Countdown WGN game show kids MSNBC Black Mirror cinemax dark 45 Ovation cancelled FX on Hulu dragons movies Calendar doctor who Interview unscripted singing competition Anna Paquin Star Wars HBO Max crime drama Box Office Mary Tyler Moore GLAAD NYCC crime thriller elevated horror Biopics jamie lee curtis Brie Larson anthology hist romantic comedy critics Reality Competition Disney Channel Schedule Christmas Cannes stand-up comedy Animation aliens Hear Us Out Avengers Rom-Com versus criterion based on movie