The latest phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is ending, but fans clearly are not ready to let go. The Tom Holland era of Spider-Man lives on with numbers not only greatly exceeding the lowball estimates of the studio but giving them a new standard to live up to with the character. Speaking of standards, do you recall all those “disappointment” labels for Toy Story 4? Well, two weeks later it has staked out a path to reach one of the numbers many of us expected it to in the first place.
Did Spider-Man: Far From Home get the same Avengers bump that Iron Man 3 did years ago? We’ll answer that in a minute, but Tom Holland’s fifth appearance as the superhero (and just his second stand-alone film) is nevertheless looking like another monster for Marvel. Just last week it had the highest Tuesday opening of all-time ($39.25 million) and the highest single Wednesday of any Marvel film ($27 million). That was all before the weekend. By the end of its first six days, it has grossed $185 million. That is more than Sam Raimi’s 2002 origin story, which had $144.1 million after six days (around $205 million if you figure inflation.) Spider-Man: Homecoming had $154.1 million, Raimi’s Spider-Man 3 ($176.1 million), and Spider-Man 2 ($180 million) now all trail Far From Home. But we need to be looking at more recent examples to have an idea of what Spidey’s future holds.
The eight MCU films to crack the $400 million line domestically, the lowest total after six days was Captain Marvel with $187.6 million, and that was without a trio of summer weekdays. Next on the list is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 which had $175.9 million and finished with over $389 million. Homecoming finished with $334.2 domestically and $880.1 million worldwide. Far From Home has already grossed over $580 million worldwide. The broadest estimate we can start with for Far From Home is somewhere between $390-425 million domestic. It also has a distinct advantage in not exactly having much competition with Stuber and Crawl next week. War for the Planet of the Apes helped knock Homecoming back a bit with a 62% decline in its second week. Far From Home is unlikely to see such a dip next weekend.
Toy Story 4 did not reach $200 million in its opening weekend as some people thought. It did not even reach $150 million. But two weeks later, it is over $300 million, making it just the 27th film ever to do that in 17 days or less — at $306 million it ranks 24th. Among the 26 other films that have done it, only three failed to reach $400 million. They were Revenge of the Sith, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Two of those were final chapters of sorts like Toy Story 4, with each of them still finishing between $380-390 million. Guardians actually had a slightly higher third weekend with $34.6 million and is the only film to ever have $300 million in 17 days and a $30+ million third weekend but still miss the $400 million line. Remarkably though, Toy Story 4 has not just maintained a steady pace with #3, it is actually outpacing it even further now by over $17 million. Toy Story 3 had a $30.2 million third weekend (compared to 4’s $34.3) and finished with over $410 million. With a worldwide total just under $650 million, where exactly is the disappointment again?
On the other hand, there may be some slight disappointment for Ari Aster’s Midsommar. Critics scored it at 82% on the Tomatometer, and it was certainly hoping for something closer to Hereditary‘s $17.2 million five-day start. $10.6 million for Midsommar suggests word of mouth is hitting it earlier and harder, despite an audience score that is currently 4% higher than Aster’s debut. Nevertheless, it is already the 11th film released by A24 to gross $10 million or higher, it could still be one of their five highest-grossing films ever, and it has already secured the best opening for an indie studio this year. Hereditary is their second-highest with $44.06 million.
Last week’s releases each experienced their own share of success. Annabelle Comes Home is up to $50.3 million after 12 days. That puts the film a bit over the pace of the 2010 remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street, which finished with over $63 million. Annabelle is aiming for somewhere between $65-70 million, which would be the lowest-grossing of the Annabelle films. But with over $134 million globally already on a budget in the vicinity of $30 million, it is already well into profit. Danny Boyle’s Yesterday maintained its third place slot and has collected over $36 million in 10 days. It will shortly become Boyle’s second highest grossing film, and with around another $34 million total, it will be into profit territory as well.
Finally in coincidence city, Disney’s live-action Aladdin remake grossed $8.2 million in its seventh weekend. Back in 1992 in its seventh weekend of wide release, the animated Aladdin grossed $8.43 million. That is also enough to get the 2019 version over $921 million worldwide, the 55th film to ever cross that line. And it is still in the top five. Now imagine how much The Lion King is going to make. Probably not as much as Avengers: Endgame, which, by the way, is now less than $16 million away from Avatar’s all-time global record with $2.772 billion. If Men In Black International drops enough next week (and its global total stands at just $244 million), Endgame could make one last stand in the Top Ten next week.
The MCU was in full effect as Ant-Man and the Wasp took the lead with a $75.81 million weekend. The First Purge was no match for it when it finished fourth with $17.3 million and a $31.2 million haul since its opening the prior Wednesday. The documentary Whitney opened to $1.26 million in 451 theaters. But it was Boots Riley’s Sorry to Bother You winning the per-theater-average of the week earning $727,266 in just 16 theaters. Incredibles 2 also passed the half-billion mark domestically in its fourth weekend. The Top Ten films grossed a total of $176.8 million and averaged 71.3% on the Tomatometer. This year’s Top Ten grossed an estimated $176.83 Million and averaged 71.6%.
That total is only the 17th best July weekend since 2007. Even if next week ends up ranking much further down the list, do not let the box office panic being peddled seem like the theater experience is dying. 2018 was the biggest year on record and the years surrounding it from 2015-19 would all be 9-11% off the pace at this current time. 2019 is currently off 10.3% with The Lion King on the way.
In a bit of a placeholder week between high-profile blockbusters, we nevertheless get Dave Bautista hailing down Kumail Nanjiani’s uber to catch a terrorist in Stuber. The film had a mixed reception when it premiered at SXSW in March and currently has a 42% on the Tomatometer. Then again, at least Fox screened it for critics, something that Paramount is not doing for Crawl, the latest horror film from Alexandre Aja, the director of High Tension and the remakes of The Hills Have Eyes and Piranha. This time it’s alligators in a flooding house hoping to chomp down on Kaya Scodelario and hopefully more bucks than the Child’s Play remake, which went from second place to 12th in three weeks.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]